ECONOMEX
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Mexican Economy 2026: Reality vs. the Official Narrative
What the data show—and what households are actually facing at the start of 2026
Ene 11 2026
Overview
At the beginning of 2026 the Mexican economy presents a mixed picture. Aggregate indicators suggest modest progress, largely sustained by extraordinary factors, while many households feel increasing pressure. Formal employment growth is driven mainly by the formalization of digital‑platform workers; inflation is technically easing but still hurts families; and projected 2026 growth remains modest, insufficient to close existing gaps.
When I share these figures on social media, two distinct reactions emerge:
- Business owners report collapsing sales and a deteriorating consumption environment.
- Supporters of the current administration quickly dismiss any data that challenges the official narrative, often without engaging with the underlying numbers or everyday experiences.
This polarization reflects both a political divide and an economy where aggregate data diverge from on‑the‑ground realities—a gap that deserves a data‑driven examination.
Formal Employment: Statistical Growth, Real Weakness
- 2025: IMSS‑registered formal jobs rose by 278,697 positions (1.3 % annual growth).
- Digital‑platform workers (Uber, Didi, Rappi) accounted for ≈ 74 % of those new jobs.
- Excluding platform workers, regular salaried job creation falls to 72,176 positions, the weakest performance since 2003 in a non‑recession year (growth ≈ 0.3 %).
- Only 13 % of platform workers in the pilot program meet the threshold for full insurance coverage.
Employers on Pause
- Uncertainty stemming from domestic reforms, institutional changes, and doubts about the U.S.–Mexico trade relationship led many firms to postpone hiring.
- Sectoral declines in mining, construction, and manufacturing further limited job creation.
- By year‑end, 18 of 32 states reported lower payrolls; the sharpest drops were in Campeche (‑8.3 %), Tabasco (‑3.8 %), Coahuila (‑2.6 %) and Sonora (‑2.4 %).
- December 2025 saw a loss of 320,692 formal jobs—the steepest monthly decline since 2022—erasing 53.5 % of all jobs created up to November.
Historically, Mexico added > 600,000 formal jobs annually (2010‑2019), peaking at > 800,000 in several years. By contrast, 2025’s performance is markedly weaker and heavily dependent on platform‑worker formalization.
Inflation: Technical Easing, Everyday Pressure
- 2025 headline inflation: 3.69 % (lowest since 2020), keeping the CPI within Banco de México’s 3 % ± 1 pp target for six consecutive months.
- Non‑core inflation: 1.61 % (down from 5.95 % in 2024).
- Core inflation: 4.33 %, with food & beverages up 5.22 %, services 4.35 %, other goods 3.51 %.
While the technical figures look favorable, the weighting methodology may understate the burden on typical households, who spend a larger share on food, transport, and services—categories that remain costly.
A Land Survey shows:
| Indicator | Share |
|---|---|
| Experienced a “January squeeze” | 60 % |
| Cited inflation as primary stressor | 24 % |
| Cited overspending + rising prices | 19 % |
| Entered December already in debt | 16 % |
Nearly half (44 %) attribute the squeeze to personal responsibility, yet many also call for price controls on basics, stronger financial education, and better credit conditions.
Inflation Risks in 2026
Analysts anticipate upward pressure from:
- Minimum‑wage increase: +13 %
- Higher excise taxes (IEPS) on selected goods
- Rising labor costs and new tariffs
Forecasts vary:
| Source | 2026 Inflation Forecast |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 4.2 % |
| Banco Base | > 3.8 % |
| Fitch | 3.8 % (year‑end) |
| Some estimates | ≈ 5 % (first four months) |
The minimum wage has risen double‑digit for eight consecutive years, delivering a cumulative real gain of 168 %. However, productivity has not kept pace, creating price pressures—especially in services—and fostering informality.
Economic Growth: An Insufficient Pace
- Consensus forecast (Citi survey of 35 analysts): GDP + 1.3 % in 2026 (vs. 0.4 % in 2025).
- Five institutions predict sub‑1 % growth; Scotiabank sees 0.6 %.
Even the optimistic outlook remains well below the government’s targets and is unlikely to close employment deficits, absorb demographic pressures, or relieve household financial strain.
Conclusions
- Employment – The 2025 increase is largely a statistical artifact of platform‑worker formalization. Without it, the labor market would have posted its weakest performance in over two decades.
- Inflation – Headline declines mask persistent core pressures that continue to bite households.
- Growth – Projected 1.3 % expansion is insufficient to sustain wage gains, reduce informality, or offset rising living costs.
The economy is increasingly reliant on extraordinary factors (platform formalization, temporary commodity price dips) to avoid deeper deterioration. As 2026 progresses, minimum‑wage hikes, higher taxes, rising labor costs, and tariff adjustments will sustain inflationary pressure, while weak growth limits the ability to absorb these shocks.
Staying informed about these dynamics is essential for policymakers, businesses, and citizens alike.
Alejandro Gómez Tamez
Director General, GAEAP
alejandro@gaeap.com
Follow on X: https://x.com/alejandrogomezt